Americans vote this week. Analysts say the tariffs and the oil war stay.

Americans elect a new Congress this week. Al Jazeera asked analysts across the region what the result would change for Asia, and the answer came back close to empty. "Tariffs don't change. The war doesn't change," said Steven Okun of the advisory firm APAC Advisors. A Congress run by Democrats could hold hearings on the war with Iran, he said, but it could not end it. The president can veto a law, and overturning a veto needs two thirds of the votes in both chambers, a level Al Jazeera says Democrats are almost certain to fall short of.

For Indonesia the heaviest line in that story is fuel. Before the fighting, Asia took in most of the Gulf oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran closed that narrow sea lane after American and Israeli strikes. Al Jazeera, citing the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, reports that the higher costs have drained the foreign exchange reserves of the region's poorest economies, meaning the store of foreign money a country keeps to pay for imports and debts. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam "have also spent heavily on fuel subsidies to shield consumers," the institute says. The Philippines, which buys more than 90 per cent of its crude oil from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March.

Trade is the other half. The US Supreme Court struck down Washington's 2025 "reciprocal" tariffs in February, and in July the administration came back with tariffs of 10 and 12.5 per cent on goods from 60 trading partners, using forced labour as the reason. Indonesia is one of seven Southeast Asian countries on that list. Stephen Olson, quoted in the piece, says any deeper shift in American trade policy will have to wait for the 2028 presidential election. Tighter limits on selling technology to China are expected to pass either way.

Why it matters

For exporters and for anyone who buys fuel, this week's vote is not a reason to wait and see. The tariff on goods sold to American buyers and the subsidy bill that holds down the pump price are both set for now, with the next real opening put at 2028. The question for Indonesian households is less who wins in Washington than what the budget gives up to keep fuel cheap while the Hormuz route stays risky.