Prabowo's first full budget bets big on free meals

The 2026 budget is the first one fully written by President Prabowo Subianto's government, and it makes his priorities plain. Writing in The Diplomat, the analysis lays out a plan for total spending of about US$233 billion, a 6 percent rise, built on hopeful targets: 5.4 percent economic growth and a budget deficit kept under 2.7 percent of the economy. But those targets depend on tax revenue growing 14 percent, a big jump after the government fell short of its revenue goal in 2025.

The clearest signal is where the money goes. The agency running the free-meals program (MBG) is set to receive about US$16 billion, roughly $5 billion more than the entire Ministry of Defense. That is a striking bet, especially since the program spent only about 72 percent of its smaller budget the year before, even while feeding 56 million people. Pouring in far more money before fixing how the old money was spent raises questions about waste.

The budget also pulls power toward the centre. Transfers to local governments fall from 25 percent of spending to 18 percent, meaning Jakarta keeps more and the regions get less. That reverses years of sharing money and authority with local areas, and it gives the national government a tighter grip on where funds flow.

Why it matters

A national budget decides what gets funded, from school meals to local roads, so these choices reach into daily life across the country. Betting heavily on one flagship program while revenue lags raises the risk of shortfalls or cuts later, and sending less to the regions can squeeze local services. Watch whether the revenue target is met, and whether the free-meals program spends its bigger budget any better.