Prabowo's approval has fallen by 30 points since November

President Prabowo Subianto began his term with poll numbers most leaders never see. That period is over. A new survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) puts his approval at 51.1 per cent in July, down from 81.2 per cent in November. Almost 47 per cent now say they are not satisfied, so the country sits close to an even split. The South China Morning Post reports that SMRC questioned 749 people between 5 and 19 July.

Deni Irvani, SMRC's executive director, said the fall is "closely related to the decline in positive sentiment towards economic, political and law enforcement conditions." Put simply, people feel worse about the economy, about how politics is run, and about whether the law treats everyone the same. What the survey picks up is a household test rather than a policy test. Voters are answering about prices, jobs, and purchasing power, which means how much your pay actually buys once prices rise. Since taking office Prabowo has spent heavily on welfare and village-economy programmes, and those programmes are not changing the answer.

The sharpest number is a hypothetical one. Asked who they would vote for, respondents put West Java governor Dedi Mulyadi on 35 per cent and Prabowo on 14.5 per cent, less than half a provincial governor's score. The next presidential election is in 2029 and Mulyadi has declared nothing, so this is a mood reading rather than a forecast. It still tells coalition partners and party bosses something they will act on: the president's name is no longer the safest one to stand next to.

Why it matters

An unpopular president governs differently, so watch for spending that buys goodwill fast, such as fuel and food subsidies or cash handouts, because it lands straight in an already tight budget. If you were counting on the welfare programmes to ease your own costs, this survey says most Indonesians do not feel them yet. Politicians reading the same numbers will start protecting themselves, which slows down any reform that hurts before it helps.