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Indonesia cut the gas to Singapore, then said the contract allows it

Foreign policy · · · 🇭🇰 source (scmp.com)

▼ Bad for Indonesia energy threat strains ties, raises supplier doubts

Indonesia has reduced the natural gas it sends to Singapore by 31 million standard cubic feet a day, a common daily volume measure in the gas trade, and the energy ministry says it has done nothing wrong. The South China Morning Post reports the ministry's two reasons: Indonesia needs more gas at home for power plants and factories, and the smaller flow still sits inside what the contract allows. Long-term gas deals usually set a range rather than one fixed daily amount, so a seller can send less and still be within the agreement.

What made this news outside Indonesia was the timing. The cut landed while haze from fires on Borneo and Sumatra hung over the region, and days after Indonesia's energy minister said exports could stop for nations that "did not respect" Indonesia. Singapore has been the sharpest critic of the fires, naming Indonesian companies it holds responsible and widening that list this month. A day after the reduction became public, Singapore publicly told gas suppliers to honour their commitments.

Both halves of Jakarta's answer carry a cost. Saying the gas is needed at home is an admission that domestic demand is outrunning domestic supply, in a year that has already put drivers in hours-long queues for subsidised petrol. Saying the contract permits it is legally tidy but does not undo the message the energy minister sent first, which was that supply and respect are linked. Indonesia sells gas to its neighbours under deals that run for years, and buyers who think deliveries can shrink during a political argument will price that in next time they sign.

Why it matters

If you run a business that buys gas or electricity, the ministry's own reasoning is the part to watch: it says the fuel is being kept for Indonesian power plants and industry, which tells you how tight domestic supply has become. For everyone else, this is the haze dispute turning into an energy dispute. Watch whether the reduction grows or quietly goes back, because the price Indonesia gets on its next long-term gas deal depends on whether buyers still read it as a steady supplier.

EnergySingaporeHazeASEAN

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